Demographic Winter
I am not entirely sure what to make of the recent, somewhat creepy fascination with other people’s fertility in the media. Writers like Phillip Longman, Ben Wattenberg, Mark Steyn and others have have written innumerable “doomsday is coming” articles and books on the recent global decline in birthrates.
Now they have added a movie, Demographic Winter to the list.
Now I have read a lot of about this topic,including Phillip Longman’s book, “The Empty Cradle” America Alone (by Mark Steyn) Ben Wattenberg’s, Birth Dearth along with a metric ton of articles on the topic, many of which can be found here. So I suppose me complaining about their fascination is rank hypocrisy on part folks but will say the “natalist” crowd is full of beans.
I agree that there will be some short term economic troubles with social welfare programs, ugly troubles created when you palm off the responsibility of retirement savings onto the next generation, but in the long term there are no downsides. I also agree that its tough to be in a business where all the markets are declining in size but that an artifact of our “growth is everything” school of economics.
The population in this great United States of America has gone up by 50% (from about 200 million to 300 million) since I was a boy and doubled in Mama Prosper’s time. This hasn’t made the US a better place, made us a better people or done anything very good for us at all.
The biggest consequences seem to have been more expensive housing and the current oil crises.
Benefits? I have seen any yet.
On the other hand less people simply means more wild spaces, less resources needed and a better quality of life for all.
It may also have other benefits, including
stimulating automation, raising wages for poor workers and reducing inequality,
Its also means the people that do have kids will value them more, put more into them and on the whole will be more likely to have wanted them. The puts quality before quantity, not a bad trade off.
So I’d suggest that the well meaning do gooders like that big three above not try to encourage more people to have babies. Aside from being nosy and rude its pointless. People will have whatever amount of children they need. Nature will take its course and after a shake up population will likely stabilize.
After all people need people.
As for me Good Lord Willing and the Creek Don’t Rise I find a Misses Prosper, I’d like 3 or 4 kids. Large or small family is what really matters.